![]() ![]() Or the chances of our project getting completed in our expected time duration is 85% and not getting in our time duration will be 15%. Find the value of 1.06 in a normal distribution table, you will have the value 0.855.Z Value = (Due Date – Expected Time of Completion)/ √89.Expected Time of Completion is 11 Weeks.Now to answer our question, “What is the probability of completing on or before certain time period? Standard Deviation is worked out by finding out the square root of the project variance Then add up the variances of these activities to calculate the project variance. Say for example Critical Path is Activity A, C, E, H. In order to calculate the variance of the overall project, add up the variances of the activities under critical Path. Variance is the difference between optimistic and pessimistic time from the mean time period.Ģ A PERT chart is useful for time-consuming projects with multiple phases that require contribution from several employees. We need to know what the variance of the time period. ![]() Most Likely time is the most likely time period it will take to complete a taskĮstimated Time is then worked out by = (Optimistic Time + 4 Most Likely Time + Pessimistic Time)/6Ĭonsidering we are now working with 3 time period – optimistic, most likely, pessimistic time to arrive at estimated time. Pessimistic time is the longest time period assumed for a given task or activity Optimistic time is the shortest time assumed for a given task or activity Considering PERT deals with an uncertain time period, it will involve finding Optimistic Time, Most Likely Time and Pessimistic Time. A PERT chart is used to schedule the tasks required to complete a project, and to estimate the minimum time required. Of all the steps, one crucial steps that involve in creating PERT is finding Estimated Time. Update the PERT Chart as project progress.Find of Z Score (Normal Distribution Table).Calculate the Standard Deviation of Project Variance.Calculate the variance of each Task or Activity.Estimate the Time required for each activity.Construction network diagram with arrows representing activities and nodes being milestones.Determine the tasks required to complete the project and the sequence they must be done.It assumes Probability distribution of the project completion time is the same as that of a critical path.Even if Activity Time is well established, PERT assume BETA distribution these time estimates but the actual distribution may be different.Activity Time Estimated is somewhat subjective and depends on a judgment.Critical Path Activity that directly impacts the completion time.What is the probability of completing on or before certain time period?.While Critical Path Method deals with a certainty of duration. A similar methodology was developed at the same time for Private Sector was Critical Path Method (CPM). Navy in the 1950s to manage the Polaris submarine missile program. It is a methodology developed by the U.S. A Program Evaluation Review Techniques (PERT) chart is a project management tool used to schedule, organize, and coordinate tasks within a project.
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